Planning for the Worst Case Scenario – Guest Post by Ryan Kazinec
Written by: Tom Sawyer
Ryan Kazinec has been a consistent contributor here on 7daybuzz and his opinion is something we value. Ryan is the founder of JealousBrother.com, an author on The Official JealousBrother Blog and on his personal blog GetToKnowTheCEO.com. When Ryan has something to say, it will be thoughtful with a heavy dose of common sense. Without further ado…
Planning for the Worst Case Scenario
I didn’t live through the “Great Depression” and was only eight years old when the savings and loan(S&L) crisis took place so it’s safe to say I haven’t experienced anything remotely close to as serious as the crisis the United States (and World) is currently facing. We’re all hoping for the best but are you preparing for the worst? The economic distress becomes more obvious each and every day. A simple drive home from work uncovered several more businesses closing their doors, neighbors foreclosing on their homes, and news on the radio of more companies going under with a horrendous amount of jobs being lost. In times like this it can be dangerous and borderline reckless to be overly optimistic.
Instead of looking at it as a glass half full or empty would it not be wiser to look at it as a glass that you will do everything in your power to keep from running dry, tipping over, or cracking? If you’re anything like the wife and I, you may live comfortably, pay all of your bills on time with a little extra money each check. The unfortunate thing is our relatively smooth situation could take a sudden and prompt turn for the worse if either one of us became unemployed. I’ve actually been forced to think about the “what if’s” and come up with the “would do’s.” For example, priority one would be to keep a roof over our heads at all costs, so that means luxuries like satellite television, telephone service, and internet would immediately have to go along with other wants like eating out, pricier foods, and unfortunately the beer would have to go as well. Sure filing for unemployment may buy us some time but I’m also forced to consider the dwindling job market and this is where the worst case scenario begins.
The situation I described isn’t a delusion, or a rare occurrence, its happening daily. If things keep getting worse how bad can it get? It’s hard to imagine our current society reduced to animal like behavior forced to cheat and steal in order to keep food in our stomachs but then again people did stomp a man to death in Wal-Mart on black Friday over slightly discounted merchandise. To further define the “worst case scenario” we need to take a look at the past. According to Wikipedia, “The market crash marked the beginning of a decade of high unemployment, poverty, low profits, deflation and lost opportunities for economic growth and personal advancement.” Sound familiar? Well that’s a small portion of a description of the Great Depression; much like our current situation it is nearly impossible to isolate a sole cause for the downfall in the economy but the affects are eerily similar. Is it a stretch to compare our current situation to the Great Depression? Sure, but then again I’m writing about the worst case scenario.
A lot in our society and country has changed since the 1930’s like the invention of the television, computer, and internet but something that stands out as even more significant is our inability to self sustain. It would seem with our constant advancement in technology as a society we have forgotten how to rely on ourselves. Considering the worst case scenario what would you do if you couldn’t afford groceries or even worse what if groceries weren’t available? Have we forgotten that our ancestors actually lived off of the land? They grew crops, raised the animals they would later have for dinner, and made their own clothes. We have become so reliant on others to provide our goods and services that in the event of our luxuries disappearing we might find ourselves helpless and confused.
A recession is no laughing matter and a depression is a pure nightmare. The U.S. unemployment rate has been consistently growing since January of 2008 and is showing no signs of letting up. At a current rate of 6.7% of Americans unemployed the U.S. is approaching a milestone we’d rather not meet. (Source) Aside from the Great Depression where at times unemployment reached nearly 25% the second highest rate of 9.7% was hit in 1982 which the U.S. is getting dangerously close to. (Source) I think it’s realistic to assume that there isn’t going to be an abundance of jobs created any time soon that will lessen the blow of the hundreds of thousands of jobs that are being lost on a monthly basis.
We’re a long way off from the staggering unemployment numbers of the Great Depression and unemployment is only one of many statistics used to measure an economy’s performance but let’s not be naive. Isn’t it always better to be safe than sorry? How hard would it be to start preparing for the worst even if you’re certain things will be okay? There are a lot of little things you can do now that will only benefit you if the unthinkable occurs. Learn how to garden and purchase plenty of seeds, learn how to can foods and gradually stock up on canning jars/lids, keep extra water around, and you can even dehydrate food and vacuum seal it. I’d be lying if I said I’ve taken all of these precautions but I am being honest when I say the thought has crossed my mind and there will be a boiling point when I will be more proactive in preparation. Optimism is a wonderful quality to have but be careful; being too confident in some circumstances can be a very poor choice. I’d love to hear your thoughts, opinions, views. Leave a comment here and then come express your opinions on our website where we have a rivalry involving a very similar topic. Very Scared/Worried vs. Everything Will Be Okay
Ryan Kazinec
CEO – JealousBrother.com
Tags: economic distress, foreclosures, great depression, job layoffs, self-sustain, unemployment rates, worst case scenario
January 5th, 2009 at 12:22 am
Just wanted to say HI. I found your blog a few days ago on Technorati and have been reading it over the past few days.
January 5th, 2009 at 7:40 am
Hi Jeff. Welcome to 7DayBuzz. We’re glad to have you on our site.:–)
January 5th, 2009 at 8:19 am
Hi Ryan,
Got your message and hurried over to read your article.
I think you are right on the money. Most of us haven’t seen such bad times as the great depression and it will take us by surprise.
Planning ahead is the smart thing to do. Such as your ideas of cutting back on services that are really luxuries. May start with container gardening and grow some radishes to whet you appetite for gardening.
Worse times are coming. We will have to live smart.
Enjoyed,
Ripi
January 5th, 2009 at 8:27 am
Hi Ripi. Welcome to 7DayBuzz.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
We have to keep good thoughts as we get through this mess. It is hard, especially when, like this morning, a friend called to say he lost his job. Sigh.
January 5th, 2009 at 2:22 pm
Hey Ryan, I am a very optimistic person. I always like to believe everything is going to work out for the best. But I have to admit that sometimes, with the economy being the way it is, I sometimes focus on the WHAT IF. However, the WHAT IF, as it relates to the economy, is just too depressing for me. Does that mean I’m being remiss in my actions as they relate to preparing for the WORST? Some may think so. But you know what? I am of the opinion that it’s NOT going to get any worse – at least not like it was during the Great Depression. That was a different era. I mean, yes, the unemployment rate is high right now at 6.7%. But if you put things into perspective, that’s a long way off from 25%, which is what it was during the Great Depression! Even the 9.7% is still far away from the 25%! Also, if you talk about animal -like behavior, if you’re truly honest, some people acted that way BEFORE the economy took a turn for the worse. If you think I’m wrong, look at footage after the levies broke in New Orleans after Katrina hit. Or look at some of the actions of others when riots occur. If you really think about it, it’s only because the middle-class and some wealthy individuals have been affected by this that this has become really newsworthy. How many homeless individuals and families and poor people are (and have been) in this type of situation – before the down trodden economy? Did the media really focus in on those people? I don’t think so. Again, I think you have to put things into perspective. Yes, it’s news, but it’s always been news – it’s just that now individuals higher up on the society chain are being affected and well, that’s just not acceptable, is it?
January 5th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Kim,
You bring up some interesting points but let me correct you on a couple of them. I don’t think it’s nearly as class driven as you might think. Up until the economy started on it’s downward spiral there was plenty of opportunity (jobs) out there, now the job numbers are dwindling. My point being, a year ago if a homeless person truly wanted a job, the opportunity was out there if they took the initiative. The lack of jobs also causes problems for those responsible individuals who have held their jobs for a number of years. What happens if your company lays you off or goes out of business? Up until recently, losing a job wouldn’t be a major life changing event. You pick yourself up and find a new job in a matter of days or weeks. Not any more, during economic down falls you can plan on easily spending three times the amount of time looking for a job and still may end up unsuccessful or forced to take a job that doesn’t pay enough to keep up with your outgoing debt.
There are a lot of people like you who think everything is going to be okay and I hope you’re all right but there is a problem. Everyone has their comfort zone and up until that comfort zone is riled up there’s no need to worry. It will be an endless debate on what’s to blame for the state of the economy but what is clear is the massive amount of foreclosures due to irresponsible lending and ignorant borrowing played a major role. Here is the BIG problem, My wife and I, like a lot of working class American families are stretched fairly thin. (The average American carries 9k in credit card debt) We have no problem affording our bills while we are working but the minute one of us becomes unemployed there is a major problem which is something we’ve never had to worry about because we are both hard working reliable people. THOUSANDS! of jobs are being lost daily and think about all of those responsible working class Americans who will then not be able to afford their house payment due to being out of work. It’s a second housing crisis in itself. Unemployment isn’t enough for most Americans to keep up with their bills or more specifically their house payment.
Now onto a dose of reality that hits real close to home. The day after I completed this article we got some disheartening news, the company I work for (The largest cookie/cracker company in the world) informed me that my hours were being cut to the equivalent of 10% in pay. That was stressing enough on it’s own but just today my wife was informed that her company (A large clothing retailer on the eastern side of the US) will be shutting down completely. That’s right, just as I wrote in the article a couple of unfortunate events are forcing us into survival mode. I do indeed look at this as a glass that I will do everything in my power to keep from running dry, tipping over or cracking. I’m not telling you this to make you feel guilty, I’m telling you this to bring some reality to the severity of problems our country has and it’s not just us, it’s your neighbors and thousands of other complete strangers.
The overall problem now isn’t the tightened credit, it isn’t adjustable rate loans, the problem is purely lack of opportunity.
Ryan Kazinecs last blog post..Is Job Security Becoming More Significant Than Compensation and Benefits?
January 5th, 2009 at 4:35 pm
Hey Ryan, thanks for enlightening me. I’m truly sorry to hear about what’s happening to you and your wife. Your family is in my prayers.
I am still very hopeful that things will turn around so that people can begin to recover. And I know what you’re thinking – that my hope is in Obama :–) I’m just waiting to see with him.
January 5th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Thank You Kim,
he does.
That means a lot to me and Crystal. We’ll see, he may surprise me and quite frankly I hope
Ryan Kazinecs last blog post..Is Job Security Becoming More Significant Than Compensation and Benefits?
January 5th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
If it turns out to be the prophesied bad times, well, everything will collapse and as you said people will even be willing to sell their souls for the necessities, ” day s wages 3 quarts of barley
sheas last blog post..Happy New Year!!!
January 5th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
Hey shea. Welcome to 7DayBuzz.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:04 am
[...] I would like to say thank you to Ryan, from JealousBrother, for the great article yesterday. We asked him to write a post about whatever he wanted to and he came through. The [...]
January 7th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
[...] A simple drive home from work uncovered several more businesses closing their doors, neighbors foreclosing on their homes, and news on the radio of more companies going under with a horrendous amount of jobs being lost. …[Continue Reading] [...]
January 8th, 2009 at 6:12 am
me to in a worst case for the past 3 years, now it is going good.
January 8th, 2009 at 8:08 pm
It’s good to hear things are going better for you now and the baby is adorable.
Ryan Kazinecs last blog post..Is Job Security Becoming More Significant Than Compensation and Benefits?
January 13th, 2009 at 8:38 am
It’s gonna get worse before it gets better, but it has a lot to do with the part of the country you live in too. In the NE, things are not that bad so far…
January 16th, 2009 at 8:07 am
unemployment and depression…
I personally agree with your comments, but there will always be some people who may not feel the same….
February 10th, 2009 at 11:51 am
This alignment is also towards a southerly rising of Venus which occurs once every eight years.
March 11th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Thank you !
This a really good post as i like to read
March 20th, 2009 at 11:47 am
I’ve never given this a try, but I think it’s about time I do.