Written by: Tom Sawyer

The next best thing to having a guest blogger is to have permission to repost a good article from another blog.  Thanks to Zach Bass from Investor in the Wilderness for allowing me to repost this article.

By the end of the summer of 2008 Apple will be in position to grab gold in the Desktop and the Mid to Hi-end Cellphone events. It’s all coming together for Apple, from the economic cycle to the Beijing Olympics. And I’m going to explain how it might play out, but first there’s a bitter pill that must be swallowed.

We’re in a down market and things don’t look good. The Dow has recently dropped below January lows, the S&P 500 is skirting along critical support, and the Nasdaq dropped nearly 100 points last week. The market internals are dismal with decliners leading advancers by 2 to 1, and new lows are outpacing new highs by an astonishing 10 to 1! And let me tell you right now, it’s going to get worse before it gets better. Ouch!

The reason it’s going to get worse, is that as bad as things are, investor sentiment has not yet reached the level of fear needed to affect a trend reversal. This is apparent by looking at the state of two key indicators, the Volatility Index (VIX), currently at a relatively mild mannered 23.44, and the Put-Call ratio, which is sitting at a complacent 1.13. During the recent March lows, volatility and fear were rampant, the VIX was teetering on 34, while the Put-Call ratio was spiking as high as 1.80-1.90 intraday.

When fear is rampant, and everyone thinks we’re going to hell in a hand basket, the markets invariably reverse direction. The problem is, that as bad as things are, we simply don’t have enough fear to incite a reversal. So, we need a good push down to ramp up the fear and get this market moving in the right direction. The VIX is climbing, and the Put-Calls are getting there as well. But first, it appears that we’re going to see a bounce before this Independence Day-shortened week is over due to extremely oversold conditions on all time frames.

VIX Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern

After we get the bounce, we need to move down to the depths required to get unbridle fear coursing through investor’s veins. This seems very likely, as the VIX is setting up in an inverse head and shoulders pattern, set to breakout soon. Now that may happen just before the long weekend, or just after, but in either case, when it does a reversal will be upon us soon after.

So, that’s the first act in this play. The second act is all Apple, with the release of the 3G iPhone on July 11th, with a 22 country rollout. Apple is clearly prepared for the event as FBR Capital Market analysts Craig Berger and Robert Pikover, released a note to clients this morning about Apple’s supply chains indicating that 2008 iPhone build volumes have been revised significantly higher to an estimated 15 million units for 3Q!

A follow up to act 2, is that Apple and China have apparently cleared the way when Apple dropped its revenue sharing demands. So now the question is, will Apple be able to get China Mobile online with iPhones in time for the Beijing Olympics? It would be awesome timing as Apple will be opening two Apple Retail Stores in China, the first on July 19th in Sanlitun, a fashionable bar area of the capital city, according to the Shanghai Daily website. The second store will open during the Olympics in Beijing. If iPhones are ready by then, expect Apple to leverage the awesome marketing power of the Olympics.

This heightened exposure of all things Apple, plus the reduced iPhone price of $199, will be a powerful attractor for returning college and high school students. The third act. iPhones and Macs of every flavor will be flying off the shelves and from online stores. Hopefully this will bring a boost to ailing carriers like UPS and Fedex.

So, what’s the outlook for investors. Well, next week, as I suggested, there will likely be a bounce from oversold conditions in the markets. If the bounce is weak, it will present a good opportunity to take short positions. If it is strong, then we’ll need to wait and see, as a retraction may not be immediate. Soon after the market has retracted from the bounce, I would expect the VIX to breakout, and the Put-Call ratio to spike. As the VIX crosses 30 and nears past highs, and the Put-Call ratio clears 1.50, cover those shorts and go long. At that point we should be near a bottom. Then ride this puppy into Labor Day, and at that time, Apple can take the winners podium and collect its gold!

As always, I’ll be providing daily guidance and intraday alerts to members of the Wilderness Investors Group(go to http://www.zacharybass.com/2008/06/apple-positioned-to-take-olympic-gold.html for mor information). You might want to check it out, it’s free and there are great discussions among many talented investors.

Christmas In July @ BustedTees. 31 New Shirts in 31 Days!

Tags: Apple, olympics

This entry was posted on Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 at 12:01 am and is filed under Random Buzz. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.